Forum Übersicht - RE: Gibt Sony das Vollformat auf? - 2

ZITAT(Reisefoto @ 2010-07-27, 15:09) Andererseits wundert es mich, warum es so teuer sein soll, aus dem gleichen Wafer einen doppelt so großen Sensor auszuschneiden.[/quote]vermutlich, weil Signalverabeitung etc. auch komplexer wird. Das ganze Ding muss ja immer noch homogen sein (also über die gesamte Fläche die gleiche Charakterisik aufweisen).
Mehr Auflösung auf gleicher Sensorfläche kostet unerheblich mehr... aber mehr Sensorfläche treibt die Kosten gleich drastisch in die Höhe.
"Peanuts" wird wohl wissen, warum das Preisgefälle da so hoch ist...

Mal die Frage: Wäre eine Nex xxl mit Vollformatsensor möglich und denkbar? Natürlich mit einem etwas größeren Gehäuse.Oder würde es der Nexphilosophie wiedersprechen?
Ernst-Dieter

QUOTE (Reisefoto @ 2010-07-27, 15:09) Es ist auch die Frage, was ein Vollformatsensor kostet. Es wurde z.B. behauptet, ein APS-C Sensor koste ca. 50$, während ein Vollformatsensor ca. 500$ koste. Das würde sich auf den Preis der NEX 9 enorm auswirken. Andererseits wundert es mich, warum es so teuer sein soll, aus dem gleichen Wafer einen doppelt so großen Sensor auszuschneiden.[/quote]
Weil der Verschnitt größer und Stückzahl und Ausbeute kleiner sind. Dazu kommen Prozesschritte, die bei einem großen Sensor schwieriger sind (Farbfilter, Mikrolinsen).

Siehe auch http://www.robgalbraith.com/public_files/C...White_Paper.pdf

QUOTE If the sensors are APS-C size, there are about 200 of them on the wafer, depending on layout and the design of the periphery of each sensor. For APS-H, there are about 46 or so. Full-frame sensors? Just 20.[/quote]

Ich glaube das Bajonett der NEX ist zu klein, um einen Vollformatsensor zu verwenden. Und noch einen neuen Objektivanschluss wird Sony wohl nicht erfinden.

Die Streuen doch nur gerüchte um dann billig an eine A850 oder A900 zu kommen.

@MajorTom: Warum neu erfinden das AF Bajonet gibt es ja schon.


Gruss

Schmidi

QUOTE (Reisefoto @ 2010-07-26, 22:32) Einen Tag vor der Vorstellung von neuen Objektiven für das Vollformat (bzw. mindestens von einem) taucht zufällig das Gerücht auf, dass Sony Semiconductors die Produktion von Vollformatsensoren einstellen will und auch Sony Imaging abgesehen von bereits in der Vorbereitung befindlichen Kameras keine weiteren Vollformatmodelle mehr plant.

[...]

Inzwischen halten aber auch durchaus ernstzunehmende Personen wie Mladen, der Betreiber von Dyxum, die Meldung für plausibel.[/quote]
Wenn das zutrifft, wird eine gebrauchte Alpha 900 bald so teuer gehandelt wie heute eine neue Nikon D3x. Fangt schon mal an zu hamstern ... ;-)

ZITAT(Reisefoto @ 2010-07-27, 16:09) Es wurde z.B. behauptet, ein APS-C Sensor koste ca. 50$, während ein Vollformatsensor ca. 500$ koste.[/quote]Dann macht das derzeit die eine Kamera halt 450 Euro teurer als die andere. Wenn gleichzeitig die Nikon D700 700 Euro teurer als die D300s ist, könnte die Rechnung ja wohl aufgehen. Wenn nur der andere Sensor eine D3X 1500 bis 2000 Euro macht als die D3s (und beide haben einen Kleinbildsensor), scheinen sich 450 Euro in einen Sensor ja wohl zu lohnen.

Ganz ehrlich:
Mir wäre es recht wenn Sony das Minolta-System ganz aufgeben würde. Dann gäbe es urplötzlich massenweise Minolta-AF-Kram zum Schleuderpreis. :-)
Da ich mit meinen D7 und Dynax 7D sehr zufrieden bin, war Sony für mich nie eine Alternative!

Ich bin Minoltaner seit 1978. Sollte meine Dynax 7D mir eines Tages nicht mehr reichen, werde ich ganz zu Nikon wechseln. Eine Sony käme für mich nur infrage, falls ich eine A900 in der Lotterie gewinnen sollte. :-)

ZITAT(schmidi @ 2010-07-27, 17:50) Die Streuen doch nur gerüchte um dann billig an eine A850 oder A900 zu kommen.
Gruss
Schmidi[/quote]

Nääääää! Keine Kameras, auf die guten Optiken zu Ausverkaufspreisen wäre ich scharf!

Gruß
Jürgen

Ich habe zu diesem Zweck mal eine Umfrage gestartet, bitte beteiligt Euch rege:

http://www.mi-fo.de/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27266

Viele Grüße,

Matthias

Ganz ehrlich es kommt mir etwas komisch vor das die Vollformat Sensoren bei der 1,5 fachen Größe angeblich 10 mal so teuer in der Herstellung seien sollen, wenn dem tatsächlich so sein sollte muss ökonomisch gesehen irgendetwas stark verbesserungswürdig und/oder absolut schief gelaufen sein.
Würde man bei Sony tatsächlich mal einer richtig guten Idee nachgehen wollen würde man daran arbeiten die Herstellung von Vollformatsensoren so zu optimieren das sie maximal doppelt so teuer in der Herstellung sind wie ASP-C Sensoren, damit könnte man eine Kamera mit genialem Rauschverhalten anbieten die ca 15-20 Megapixel hat und für etwa 1000-1200€ verkauft würden könnte und 5-10FPS macht, ich bin mir sicher das man mit einer entsprechenden Kampagne einige aufsteigungswillige von Canon und Nikon abbringen, selbst wenn die Gewinnmarge pro Body nicht so groß währe, durch die großen Verkaufszahlen und die damit verbundene Nachfrage nach Mittelklasse und Spitzenoptiken würde man sicher einen gute Coup landen.

(Ein bisschen weiter geträumt vielleicht könnte man dann endlich mal ein Modell mit integriertem Vertikalgriff für ca. 200-300€ Mehr anbieten was so schön aus einem guss aussieht wie die 3Dx , das ganze würde dann auch nochmal durch die Verkäufe von Ersatzakkus gepusht)

QUOTE (fkreutzer @ 2010-07-31, 19:53) Ganz ehrlich es kommt mir etwas komisch vor das die Vollformat Sensoren bei der 1,5 fachen Größe angeblich 10 mal so teuer in der Herstellung seien sollen, wenn dem tatsächlich so sein sollte muss ökonomisch gesehen irgendetwas stark verbesserungswürdig und/oder absolut schief gelaufen sein.[/quote]
Ja, das kann ich mir auch nicht vorstellen. Zumal man bei einem CMOS-Sensor einen Teil der Fehler in gewissen Grenzen ausmappen kann. Selbst wenn das nicht ginge: Um so einen Kostenunterschied zu haben, müsste die Produktion so fehleranfällig sein, dass nur ca. jeder vierte APS-C-Sensor auf einem Wafer funktioniert und die Qualitätsanforderungen erfüllt. Dann bräuchte man etwa 10 x so viele Wafer für die gleiche Zahl erfolgreich hergestellter KB-Sensoren im selben Prozess, grob überschlagen. Bei niedrigeren Ausschussraten fällt der Preisunterschied drastisch ab. Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass in der Massenproduktion von CMOS APS-C-DSLR-Sensoren heutzutage noch 3/4 aller Sensoren Ausschuss sind, lasse mich aber gerne eines Besseren belehren.

Nicht aufdecken - Nur zu Archivzwecken hier als verdeckten Beitrag eingefügt, da der Originalartikel nicht direkt verlinkbar ist und vermutlich in einigen Wochen nicht mehr zu finden sein wird.

Thom Hogans vollständiger Artikel:

http://bythom.com/2010%20Nikon%20News.htm
ZITATMore Conspiracy Theory
July 28 (commentary)--Sigh. I really didn't think what I originally wrote was going to be that big of a deal, but it's taken on a life of its own, with the latest theory being that the rumor was maliciously timed to coincide with the launch of two full frame lenses from Sony.

Nonsense. If you follow the thread of what I've been writing about on my site for the past couple of weeks, I've been speculating about sensors. In particular, which sensors Nikon is likely to use for its coming cameras. That's because we have a lot of Nikon unknown sensor questions at the moment: what sensor will the D3000 replacement use, what sensor with the D90 replacement use, what sensor the D700 update will use, and the thing that provoked this whole train of thought on sensors in the first place: what the heck will the D4 sensor be like? After all, it needs to up the ante on the D3s or else the rest of the camera is going to have to be simply amazing.

In poking around asking questions about sensors in the pipeline I ended up with a real head scratcher when it came to FX (full frame): if the D4 is between the D3 and D3x (higher resolution than the D3 but less high ISO capability), then what happens to the D3s and D3x sensors come next summer when the D4 is launched?

Note the following: even though Nikon has had four FX bodies and Sony two full frame bodies, each has only really had one sensor. Nikon's own sensor gave us the D3, D700, and D3s. Sony's sensor gave us the A850, A900, and D3x. If Nikon chooses, say, 18mp for the D4 sensor and that's of its own design, it no longer needs the D3x sensor, I think. Most (but not all) Nikon shooters would rather have an 18mp sensor close or equal to the D3 performance than the current 24mp D3x sensor: the missing 6mp is far less important than the extra ISO bumps.

So, there are three possible paths:

* Nikon designed sensor. The most likely path. Nikon has to not lose the D3s crowd with the D4, so high ISO capability comes first, but we need more pixels, so we'll get that, too. Nikon can probably deliver D3-like noise handling at 18mp. It'll be close, but it's do-able.
* Sony designed sensor. Even when Nikon takes this route for the high end bodies, they tend to tweak (D300, D300s, D3x). But for this to work, Sony Semiconductor would have had to have committed to Nikon's schedule for the D4. That is possible, but Nikon depending upon someone else's for their flagship timetable is risky. I'd bet that they wouldn't do that again.
* Cooperatively designed sensor. To my knowledge, we've never had full cooperative designs, though the D2x sensor did show up in both Nikon and Sony products and thus might have been. Given Nikon's need to succeed in cameras now (it's too large a part of their overall business), I'd think they want to have proprietary advances at the top. So I consider this improbable.

Okay, so now run the thought process forward on the Sony side in that first, most likely scenario: Sony is left with one sensor (24mp) driving really only one current camera (A850). Sure, they can do replacements or higher end models using that sensor, but if the sales were disappointing with the A850 and A900, what exactly would another model fix? It can't be less expensive. That was tried and didn't generate the volume Sony expected. With Nikon's D3x volume leaving the mix, there isn't enough volume to run that fab machine for a single low-volume product, especially one with really tight profit margins. So Sony would have to figure out a way to sell lots of A850's or come up with new full-frame cameras that have more features, and then video starts to raise its ugly head, meaning Sony would have to redesign the sensor. For one or two low-volume cameras. Remember, too, that Sony Semiconductor and Sony Imaging will have slightly different goals. It's Sony upper management that would look at those differences and arbitrate.

That's where my thinking was at when I started hearing rumors of an impending Sony decision. That the rumored decision corresponds to well with the way I think things are headed was one of the reasons I reported the rumor. It added information to my guess that Nikon was going to do their own D4 sensor and probably not update the D3x or come out with a D700x using the Sony sensor.

So I repeat: I have nothing against Sony. The A850/A900 are very good products, if a little lens starved. Personally, I'd like to see Sony be more aggressive and innovative with their full frame lineup because it would keep pressure on Nikon and Canon.

Conspiracy Theorists
July 27 (commentary)--Since posting the rumors I've heard regarding Sony considering dropping full-frame sensors, the Sony fan boys have proceeded to do the opposite of what Sony probably wants them to. To the fan boys it seems that the rumor must be a conspiracy on my part and unnamed others to get Sony out of the professional camera business.

Let's get a few things straight. The more competition Nikon has, the more Nikon has to perform to stay competitive. That's the way I'd like it to be. Neither I nor other Nikon users get any benefit from Sony exiting the business (and we may have gotten a loss, as it would probably mean no D3xs or D700x). Loss of a competitor in full frame allows Canon and Nikon to relax a bit and just watch what the other is doing. Pricing pressures are eased as well, so we Nikon users will be paying full price. Why would I want all that?

As I noted in the original article, Sony itself is at the heart of these rumors. My interpretation is that there are (perhaps many) within Sony that don't like that they're being pressured to drop full frame from above. Squashing the rumor, as some Sony fan boys say they want to do, is the exact opposite of what would be useful if what I've just written is even remotely true. If the rumor is true and its origin is from within Sony as I suggest, then the intention seems obvious: to get a riled up public to petition management to reconsider the impending or future decision to abandon full frame. Instead, the fan boys want to shoot the messenger and ignore the rumor. Fine. Consider the messenger shot. Now what happens if I was right? ;~)

Note that I'm not the only one who's reported this rumor. Mirrorlessrumors is reporting something similar. So there are more messengers to shoot, fan boys.

I'm going to speculate a bit on what may be happening. If you get in the Wayback Machine and dial it back to Sony taking over Konica/Minolta, you may remember the executives in Sony's Imaging division saying things like they'll get a 20% market share in DSLRs within a couple of years and become number 2 in DSLR sales (exact quote from Kakagawa-san in a Sony press release: "...target for at least 20-25% of the world digicam market, and even a higher share as far as DSLRs are concerned.". Didn't happen. Not even close. Sony even went the opposite direction last year as Olympus and Panasonic broke out with their mirrorless cameras. As I pointed out when those original Sony assertions were made, the executives making them were putting their butts on the line. When you make public pronouncements like that in Japan and don't deliver, you eventually end up in a world of shame that requires punishment. Underpromise and overdeliver is the normal way things are done in Japanese management. What may be happening now is that upper management is asking Imaging to tighten their belts and show more return on investment. And I'm sure they're going to use that 20% promise against those that made it. What you're likely seeing in the rumors is an outgrowth on an internal political struggle. If pressure is coming from above to improve performance and come close to the original prognostication, where should Sony put R&D? The answer seems obvious at the moment: NEX and a revised APS lineup that embraces pixels and video. Full-frame (hasn't and) isn't going to increase Sony's market share or bottom line.

Let me go on the record here as saying that dropping full frame would be another mistake for Sony. To survive long-term as a "camera company" you need to do one of two things: go intensely niche like Leica, or participate in the full spectrum of cameras, from cellphones to professional gear. Sony, ironically, is one of the few that could actually do that (though adding the Alpha or NEX brand to the Sony-Erickssen cellphone cameras doesn't do much, does it? See, the brand as a camera company hasn't been built strong enough yet).

Finally, note one other thing. Let's say that Sony did make a decision to drop full frame today. Would that stop full-frame products from appearing tomorrow? Not at all. Cutting off R&D doesn't immediately cut off product production. The camera companies build sensors far in advance of cameras. What appears about to happen is that R&D gets directed elsewhere. That's the danger that Sony users need to fear. Because if that happens, then the full frame product line will just fizzle out. That would be a shame, as the products Sony has created are actually quite good. If you've got a closet full of Minolta lenses, you should move now to get digital full-frame cameras that can use them to their fullest. Oh, by the way, the last camera I bought was a Sony ;~).

So now how exactly is what I wrote an anti-Sony conspiracy again? I just suggested that people buy Sony full frame cameras and ask for more. Fan boys are a lot like politicians: they don't think very clearly.

Mid-Year Predictions Update
July 27 (predictions)--I've gotten a number of questions about what I still expect from Nikon in the way of new products this year. That's partly because I've offered some contradictory information and opinions lately about bits and pieces of the puzzle, especially in my recent comments on sensors. To help, here's a mid-year update of what I expect during the remainder of 2010 (note that I'm not changing anything else that appears elsewhere on this site, like my predictions page):

* D3000 replacement. We've had almost yearly updates in the low-end DSLR, and this year's is overdue. Moreover, the D3000 didn't exactly blow anyone out of the water. So expect a video-enabled update, probably with a new sensor and more. I expect this sooner rather than later. What changed in my prediction? Nothing other than the date got pushed back.
* D90 replacement. Absolutely due for late summer or early fall announcement. This is a flagship for Nikon, so they'll do it right even if it means sliding a date back a bit. But it's coming sooner rather than later. What changed in my prediction? Nothing.
* D700 replacement. At this point I'm expecting it in late fall and with the D3s sensor. There's a much slimmer chance of a higher resolution sensor, enough for me to say I don't expect that any more. What changed in my prediction? I no longer expect a high resolution version of the D700 in this cycle. There's no sensor for it. The perfectly good D3s sensor would extend the D700 life.
* Coolpix. The basic mid-year Coolpix refresh, with no surprises. No G11 killer. What changed in my prediction? The G11 killer is no longer in it.
* Lenses. Three lenses: 85mm f/1.4G, 24-120mm f/4 (or something close to that specification), 28-300mm f/3.5-5.6. A fourth is possible: a 55-300mm replacement for the current 55-200mm. Two other lenses, the 35mm f/1.4 and any higher end long telephoto zoom seem more iffy to me for this year. What changed in my prediction? Fewer new lenses will appear than I previously thought.

That's about it (an SB-700 remains a possibility, as do a few other modest accessories). While the mirrorless camera is getting talked about, if it gets announced this year I doubt it will ship this year. We may get something behind glass at Photokina, for example, but not much more until early next year, at which time I think it'll be shipped.

Sony Sensor Shakeup?
July 26 (commentary)--I've heard from multiple sources now that Sony Semiconductor is about to drop FX sensors from their lineup. What I'm hearing is that high management in Sony is saying that full-frame cameras and sensors aren't bringing the payback necessary to make them long-term profitable. This is essentially forcing Sony Imaging to consider dropping future plans for full-frame cameras (A850, A900, and follow-ups), though I'm sure we'll still see some FF products from them that were already in progress before the stream of sensors dies out. Some of the sources for the rumor appear to be Sony employees who are lobbying for keeping full-frame in the lineup. They seem to hope that news of the impending decision on the Internet will generate a wave of protest that Sony management can't ignore.

But this has a Nikon component, too. I've been wondering why I'm not hearing rumblings on a D3xs model (the D3x uses a Sony sensor at its base). It would be due later this year (and I'm on record as predicting it to arrive in December). It very well may be that there's no new sensor for a D3xs (one would have expected video capabilities to be added). Thus, there's almost nothing else of major impact that could be added that would distinguish a D3xs from a D3x. Most of the other proposed additions could simply be firmware updates to the existing model. If we don't get a D3xs by December, we won't get one, as the D4 generation is too close at hand. Thus, it looks highly likely that Nikon's FX future is in their own hands creating their own FX sensors. Given the D3/D700 and D3s sensors, that doesn't sound like a bad thing, but it will put more pressure on Nikon to produce a high-resolution sensor, something they have not yet done (to date, all of Nikon's sensor development has been mostly targeted at low light improvements).

I think this also answers one persistent question that keeps coming up: "is there any future in DX?" Yes, there is. The reason why Sony would drop FF is rooted in the economics, because the dollar amounts don't really change with sensors like they do with most semiconductor chips. In CPUs, for instance, cost gets driven out by making the CPU chip smaller and using smaller transistors (process size). That doesn't really apply to sensors, as the sensor size itself is not changing, and the light detection mechanism doesn't particularly benefit from smaller transistors (the supporting circuity does). It's just very, very costly to do FF/FX sensors. This puts them into the prosumer and pro categories only, which means there's not a lot of volume. Not having great volume makes it more difficult to reduce costs, and the circle just repeats.

As I've written before, if an FX sensor costs US$500 then a DX sensor probably costs US$50. And a cellphone sensor these days costs less than US$5 (including lens in many cases). The two ways to get lower sensor costs (other than size) is to increase the wafer size (200mm -> 300mm -> 450mm) or increase the yield somehow. But both of these tend to yield small changes at a time and would produce proportional benefits to each size (e.g., if you could reduce FX costs to US$400, then a DX sensor is going to cost US$40). Moving to smaller process (e.g. going from the current 65 nanometer sizes to 45 or 28 or even smaller) doesn't reduce FX sensor cost. But it might benefit noise handling on smaller sensors. This may be why Sony appears about to concentrate solely on DX-sized sensors at the big end. They may see that they can get to FX-type performance with DX-sized sensors, in which case the cost benefit of doing so is huge.

So, yes, there's a future in DX. Certainly a Sony future ;~).[/quote]

Hier mal etwas aufbauendes von Sony UK:

http://www.facebook.com/SonyUK?v=wall&...140979262597527

ZITATWe're extremely proud of our A900/A850 FF systems and the UK is one of the more successful markets for these products.

Sony UK continues to support and invest in our FF systems and have today just press released the launch of the Dis...tagon T* 24mm F2 SSM which will be available for purchase in September (http://85.133.72.79/content/detail.aspx?...&ReleaseID=6077).

Earlier in the year we also showcased the Super Telephoto 500mm f/4 G lens which is still awaiting launch here.

The launch of these optics, hopefully, demonstrates our commitment to existing customers and instills confidence in anyone looking to step up to alpha FF systems.

Cheers,

Sony UK[/quote]

Da der Originaltext von thom Hogan verschwunden ist, hier ein Link zu Auszügen daraus, den ich im SUF gefunden habe:

http://www.martinvieten.com/2010/07/28/sony-ohne-vollformat/