Hab hier grad was aufgeschnappt:
# Sony gets it wrong. I see four likely possibilities, all of which would be the wrong camera. (1) An R1 like entry but with a KonicaMinolta mount. (2) Something specified and priced lower than the KM D5. (3) A rebadged D5. (4) A completely new homebrewed consumer design, but with a KM mount. #1 is wrong because either it or the R1 loses. #3 is wrong because it essentially kills KM, which kills Sony's future in DSLRs (unless they buy KM's camera division). #4 is wrong because it's a first time DSLR design and it'll miss key features and/or performance. Thus, I'll go with #2, which will still prove to be wrong, because it'll hurt the R1 and KM and not be low enough priced to keep Nikon and Canon from lowering prices and defending territory. What Sony should do is aim at the 20D/D200 level, I think. I don't think you can sneak into the DSLR market from the bottom; you won't get the true prosumers, who really do care about systems they can grow with. So 12mp, 3-5 fps, well-appointed design (PC Sync, wired remotes, etc.), and a state-of-the-art autofocus system. Show that you're serious by putting out a 24-105mm lens for the mount that's as good or better than what's on the R1. Find a whistle you ring bells over (wireless flash, etc.). The R1 will hold the low end for now. KM will love it that you're not killing them quickly, and the true consumer Sony DSLR then comes in 2007.
und
KonicaMinolta was just slow. I'll just push back my 9D prediction to 2006. KM's 2006 is pretty much dictated on Sony's 2006. If Sony duplicates the 5D or undercuts it, KM is in trouble, I think. The 5D and 7D are already price-pressured, so any Sony onslaught stiffens that wind. (The one piece of maneuvering room: if KM didn't license the antishake technology to Sony and Sony doesn't provide one of their own. That would be more in the vein of "Sony gets it wrong," though.) Moreover, the D200 and eventual Canon 20D replacement are going to set a tough bar for the 9D--it'll have to perform and stay under US$1995 to find much market, I think. As good as the 5D is, I just don't see it holding its own against all the entrants at the low end--KM doesn't have the margin to play price games.
Und weitere Voraussagen nachzulesen unter:
http://www.bythom.com/2006predictions.htm